All posts filed under: Colliers Hawaii Research

Market Insights – A Preliminary Outlook at the Economic Impacts of a Trump Presidency

A Preliminary Outlook on the Economic Impacts of a Trump Presidency Any forecasts of impacts from the Trump Administration must be viewed as extremely preliminary, and the actual effects will ultimately depend upon the extent to which Trump’s campaign proposals are enacted. Trump’s planned stimulus package of tax cuts and infrastructure spending in early 2017 could provide a mild boost to employment and economic growth in the second half of 2017 and into 2018. But these gains are widely expected to be at least partially offset by greater inflation and higher interest rates. The impact of Trump’s broader economic platform raises more uncertainty. The planned business-friendly policies to reduce regulation and lower taxes can be expected to further stimulate economic growth, while the anti-globalization measures to reduce imports and net in-migration threaten to reduce economic growth in 2018 and beyond. On balance, these policies materially raise the odds of a recession by 2019, though much depends on the extent to which Trump’s economic plank is ultimately adopted. Impacts on the property sector should broadly track …